From Taiye Joseph, Ilorin
By the time Kwara voters head to the polls in February 2027, the battle for the Government House, Ilorin, may have become more than a contest between political parties. It will be a test of political survival for an outgoing governor, a fresh opportunity for a former Senate President seeking a return to power and a defining moment for politicians hoping to break the dominance of established political structures.
With Governor Abdulrahman AbdulRazaq, constitutionally due to complete his second and final term on May 29, 2027, the political atmosphere in the state is gradually gathering momentum.
The All Progressives Congress (APC), which displaced the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2019, is determined to retain power, while the PDP, under the political influence of former Senate President Bukola Saraki, is preparing for another attempt to reclaim the state.
But the contest is no longer exclusively between the two political heavyweights. The emergence of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a platform for experienced politicians and the growing visibility of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), have introduced fresh calculations into the race.
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At the centre of the unfolding contest are four governorship candidates and the political forces behind them: APC’s Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Yakubu Salihu Danladi; PDP’s Suleiman Bolakale Kawu, popularly known as Agaka; ADC’s former House of Representatives member, Zakari Mohammed; and NDC’s Olayide Olawuyi.
Beyond their individual ambitions, the election will test the strength of political structures built over the years, the influence of former leaders, the performance of the incumbent administration and the growing agitation for equitable distribution of political power among Kwara’s three senatorial districts.
For AbdulRazaq, the immediate task is ensuring that the APC retains the seat after his departure. For Saraki, it is another opportunity to demonstrate that his political influence remains strong enough to determine the direction of Kwara politics.
For the ADC and NDC, the challenge is whether their growing political visibility can translate into actual votes.
THE APC’S SUCCESSION BATTLE: CAN “O TO GE” SURVIVE ITS OWN POLITICAL SUCCESS?
The APC approaches the election with an advantage that comes with controlling the machinery of government. Since defeating the PDP in 2019, the party has consolidated its presence across the state, maintaining control of the governorship, the overwhelming majority in the Kwara State House of Assembly, the state’s National Assembly representation and leadership positions across the 16 local government areas.
Its extensive political network and established grassroots structures provide a formidable foundation for the 2027 campaign. However, the party’s greatest challenge may not necessarily come from the opposition but from within its own ranks.
The political coalition that produced the historic “O to ge” movement in 2019 has experienced considerable disagreements, particularly over the distribution of political opportunities and the selection of candidates ahead of the next general election.
The movement, which brought together politicians and supporters opposed to the political establishment associated with Saraki, swept the APC into power and subsequently secured AbdulRazaq’s re-election in 2023. But the unity that characterised the coalition’s early days has increasingly come under pressure.
Some influential stakeholders have accused the governor of concentrating political opportunities around loyalists, leaving other party leaders and members dissatisfied. The disagreements have reportedly contributed to defections and political realignments ahead of the election.
The question now is whether the APC can reconcile its aggrieved members before the campaign reaches its decisive stage. AbdulRazaq’s performance will also be a major factor in the party’s campaign.
The administration is expected to showcase its investments in road construction and rehabilitation, education, healthcare and agriculture. Among its notable interventions are the construction of about 2,000 classrooms, renovation of more than 200 primary healthcare centres and recruitment of approximately 9,000 teachers.
The government has also established a state university of education, undertaken improvements at Kwara Hotels, renovated public infrastructure and introduced KwaraLEARN as part of efforts to improve teaching and learning outcomes.
In agriculture, programmes such as the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones initiative and the Livestock Productivity and Resilience Support project, have featured prominently in the administration’s economic development agenda. For supporters of the governor, these interventions represent evidence of an administration committed to infrastructure development and improved public services.
The opposition, however, is expected to scrutinise the projects, questioning their geographical distribution, transparency and impact on the living conditions of ordinary residents. Ultimately, the APC will have to convince voters that its record justifies another four years of governance under a new leader.
DANLADI AND THE KWARA NORTH QUESTION
Perhaps the most significant political dimension of the APC’s succession arrangement is its decision to nominate Danladi, the incumbent Speaker of the State House of Assembly, who hails from Kwara North.
At 41, his candidacy has given renewed prominence to the longstanding agitation by the senatorial district to produce a governor.
Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, Kwara North has remained outside the governorship arrangement, with Kwara Central and Kwara South producing successive governors.
The district’s last experience of producing a governor was during the short-lived Third Republic, between 1992 and 1993.
Consequently, Danladi’s emergence has attracted support from political stakeholders who believe that 2027 presents an opportunity to address what they consider an imbalance in the distribution of political power.
For these stakeholders, the argument goes beyond party affiliation. It is about fairness, inclusion and giving the northern part of the state an opportunity to occupy the highest political office. However, the regional sentiment may not automatically translate into unanimous support for the APC.
Some party stakeholders from the district have expressed dissatisfaction with the process that produced Danladi, alleging that the governor imposed his preferred candidate.
There are also concerns among some aggrieved members about the extent of Danladi’s political independence and whether his administration would operate independently of AbdulRazaq.
These disagreements could complicate the party’s efforts to consolidate support in the region. Nevertheless, the APC will hope that its decision to nominate a candidate from Kwara North will strengthen its appeal across the state, particularly among voters who support the principle of regional equity.
THE PDP: SARAKI’S POLITICAL SHADOW AND THE QUEST FOR REVENGE
For Saraki and the PDP, the 2027 election represents another opportunity to reverse the political fortunes of a party that once dominated Kwara.
The PDP governed the state from 2003 until 2014, when Saraki’s defection to the APC helped trigger a major political realignment.
Saraki, who had completed two terms as governor before becoming Senate President, was instrumental in the political movement that displaced the PDP in 2015.
The party subsequently lost its dominance, culminating in another defeat in 2019 when the “O to ge” movement swept AbdulRazaq and the APC into office.
Saraki’s return to the PDP in late 2022 generated expectations of a political comeback. However, the party failed to defeat AbdulRazaq in the 2023 governorship election.
The 2027 contest will therefore provide another opportunity for the former Senate President to demonstrate the strength of his political structure.
His influence remains one of the PDP’s most significant assets. Having served as governor for eight years and Senate President for four years, Saraki possesses considerable political experience, established relationships and a network of loyal supporters across the state.
The PDP is also expected to draw attention to projects and programmes undertaken during his administration, including the establishment of Kwara State University, Malete, the Every Child Counts education initiative, road construction, improvements to healthcare facilities and the Shonga commercial farming project.
Other initiatives associated with the administration included improvements at Ilorin Airport, the establishment of an aviation college and efforts to attract private investment into the state’s economy.
While supporters regard these interventions as evidence of the administration’s developmental contributions, critics have continued to question aspects of its policies, particularly the management of public assets and the benefits of some investment initiatives.
Nevertheless, Saraki’s political influence continues to give the PDP a significant advantage in the battle for Kwara.
The party’s governorship candidate, Agaka, will, however, have to establish his own political identity beyond the influence of the former Senate President.
His background in public service and political experience will be tested against the demands of leading a state with diverse economic, social and developmental challenges.
Agaka’s emergence from Kwara Central has also revived the debate about the concentration of governorship power in the district.
Unlike the APC, which has presented a candidate from Kwara North, the PDP has opted for a candidate from the same senatorial district as Saraki and AbdulRazaq.
The decision could become a major campaign issue, particularly as advocates of regional rotation seek to persuade voters that Kwara North deserves an opportunity.
The PDP may counter that electoral success depends on a candidate’s acceptability, competence and ability to build alliances rather than geographical origin alone.
Indeed, its unsuccessful attempt to win the 2023 election with Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi, a candidate from Kwara North, could feature in that argument.
The party’s immediate priority will be to transform Saraki’s political influence into widespread electoral support while ensuring that its recent efforts to accommodate defectors do not create fresh divisions among longstanding members.
THE ADC: A NEW HOME FOR OLD POLITICAL FORCES?
While the APC and PDP remain the dominant political platforms, the ADC is gradually emerging as an alternative for politicians dissatisfied with the established parties.
Its growing prominence in Kwara has been strengthened by the involvement of experienced political figures with roots in the state’s political history.
Among them is former Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed, who succeeded Saraki in 2011 and governed Kwara for eight years. Also associated with the party is former Minister of Youth Development, Bolaji Abdullahi, who previously maintained close political ties with Saraki.
Zakari Mohammed, a former member of the House of Representatives who represented Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency, is the party’s governorship candidate.
Other notable political figures associated with the emerging realignment include former state legislator Babatunde Mohammed and veteran politician Iyiola Oyedepo, who played a role in the “O to ge” movement.
Their involvement gives the ADC access to political networks that cut across different administrations and political tendencies.
Interestingly, some of the politicians now associated with the party were once important stakeholders in the APC and PDP formations they are seeking to challenge.
Their movement raises a fundamental question: can political grievances within the established parties be transformed into a credible alternative capable of winning the governorship?
For the ADC, the opportunity lies in attracting voters who are dissatisfied with both the incumbent administration and the established opposition.
Its challenge, however, is translating the political experience of its leaders into a united campaign structure with sufficient grassroots strength.
The party must also convince voters that its emergence represents more than a gathering of aggrieved politicians seeking a new political platform.
Its success will depend on whether its leaders can subordinate individual ambitions to a common political objective and present a development agenda capable of attracting voters across the three senatorial districts.
THE NDC: CAN NATIONAL POLITICAL MOMENTUM DELIVER KWARA?
The Nigeria Democratic Congress is another emerging platform seeking to disrupt the established political arrangement. With Olayide Olawuyi, as its governorship candidate, the party is hoping to benefit from the growing national visibility of political figures associated with it, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Their reported political combination has generated interest among observers who believe that a broader opposition movement could reshape electoral calculations ahead of 2027. However, national political prominence does not automatically translate into electoral success at the state level.
The 2023 elections demonstrated that presidential popularity and governorship victories do not always follow the same pattern.
A party may enjoy considerable national attention but still struggle to establish the grassroots structures, political alliances and organisational capacity required to win a state election.
For the NDC, the immediate challenge is to establish a strong presence across Kwara’s 16 local government areas, build an effective campaign network and persuade voters that its candidate offers a credible alternative.
Its ability to attract established politicians and dissatisfied members of the major parties will also influence its prospects.
Although the party’s electoral strength remains uncertain, its emergence adds another dimension to an increasingly competitive political environment.
THE BIG QUESTION: WILL KWARA NORTH FINALLY PRODUCE A GOVERNOR?
Beyond party politics, the question of regional equity is likely to become one of the most important issues in the 2027 governorship campaign.
For years, stakeholders from Kwara North have argued that the district deserves an opportunity to produce a governor after decades outside the arrangement since 1999.
The agitation has gained renewed attention following Danladi’s emergence as the APC candidate. Supporters believe that his candidacy offers an opportunity to address the perceived imbalance in the distribution of political power among Kwara’s three senatorial districts. However, the governorship is an elective office, and the Constitution does not reserve it for any particular senatorial district.
Consequently, regional considerations will have to compete with other factors, including candidate acceptability, political alliances, party structures and the electorate’s assessment of competing development agendas.
The APC will hope to capitalise on the regional appeal of its candidate, while the PDP will seek to convince voters that its candidate’s experience and political backing outweigh geographical considerations.
The ADC and NDC may also attempt to position themselves as alternatives to the established political arrangement. Ultimately, the decision will rest with voters across the state.
WHAT WILL DECIDE THE 2027 BATTLE?
As the election approaches, the fortunes of the four parties will depend on several interconnected factors.
First is internal cohesion. The APC must resolve disagreements arising from its primaries and reconcile aggrieved stakeholders if it hopes to maintain the political coalition that brought it to power.
The PDP, on its part, must manage the delicate task of accommodating new entrants without alienating longstanding members.
Second is candidate acceptability. Danladi’s legislative experience and regional background will be weighed against questions surrounding his emergence and political independence. Agaka must demonstrate that he possesses the leadership capacity to govern beyond the influence of Saraki.
The ADC and NDC will equally have to prove that their candidates have the political credibility, organisational backing and grassroots appeal required to challenge the established parties.
Third is the performance of the AbdulRazaq administration. The APC will rely heavily on its infrastructure, education, healthcare and agricultural interventions, while opposition parties are expected to scrutinise the government’s record and highlight areas they believe require improvement.
Fourth is the influence of political leaders. AbdulRazaq and Saraki remain important figures in the state’s political calculations, but their ability to transfer personal influence to their preferred candidates will be crucial.
For the ADC, the challenge will be making its collection of experienced politicians work together as a united force. The NDC, meanwhile, must demonstrate that its national political connections can produce meaningful electoral support in Kwara.
Security, unemployment, education, healthcare, infrastructure and the cost of living will also feature prominently in the campaign.
Young people, women, rural communities and first-time voters could play important roles in determining the outcome, particularly if parties succeed in addressing their concerns with practical policy proposals.
THE FINAL TEST
As Kwara moves towards February 2027, the governorship contest is increasingly shaping up as a battle between political continuity, restoration and the search for a new direction.
For the APC, the election is about defending the political gains of the “O to ge” movement and ensuring that AbdulRazaq’s departure does not end the party’s hold on power.
For Saraki and the PDP, it is an opportunity to reclaim a political territory they once controlled and demonstrate that their influence remains relevant despite two successive governorship defeats.
The ADC is seeking to convert the experience of former political heavyweights into an electoral breakthrough, while the NDC is hoping that its growing national profile will translate into local political relevance.
Yet, none of the parties can afford to assume that its present political strength guarantees victory.
The APC’s control of government institutions does not automatically translate into another governorship victory. Saraki’s political machinery does not guarantee a PDP comeback, just as the ADC’s collection of experienced politicians and the NDC’s national connections do not necessarily translate into electoral success.
The ultimate verdict will depend on the candidates’ ability to connect with voters, the unity of their political structures and the issues that dominate public opinion as election day approaches.
More importantly, the 2027 election will reveal whether Kwara’s political landscape has fundamentally changed since the historic “O to ge” movement of 2019 or whether the state is heading towards another contest between familiar political forces.
For now, the battle lines are gradually emerging, old alliances are being tested and new political relationships are taking shape.
The biggest question is no longer simply who will succeed AbdulRazaq, but whether Kwara voters will reward continuity, embrace a return to a familiar political establishment or entrust the state’s future to an emerging alternative.
