From David Onuoja, Abuja
The end to blame game in the power sector is yet uncertainty as the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), has pushed back against the claims that more than 2,500MW of generated power is being wasted due to grid limitations, arguing that data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission shows the problem originates at power plants, not on transmission lines.
In a statement issued and signed by the general manager, Public Affairs Unit (TCN), Ndidi Mbah, debunked the report in THISDAY newspaper of July 28, quoting the Association of Power Generation Companies that it refused to wheel the generated power.
It said, NERC’s First Quarter 2026 report placed average available generation at 4,457.96MW across the 28 grid-connected plants. That figure, TCN noted, is what GenCos themselves declared to the System Operator and closely matches the “around 4,500MW” ceiling APGC attributed to the grid. The report also lists total installed capacity at 13,625MW, nearly 1,900MW below the “over 15,500MW” cited by APGC.
TCN added that its verified wheeling capacity now stands at 8,700MW following sustained investments, far above both the available generation and the grid limit alleged in the article. As proof, the company pointed to a record peak of 5,801.84MW transmitted on March 4, 2025 at 49.69Hz, with 128,370.75MWh delivered in a single day. Two other peaks above 5,500MW were recorded in February and March 2025, volumes TCN said a 4,500MW-constrained network could not have carried.
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The company also detailed recent network upgrades to support the claim. Saying, between January 2024 and November 2025, TCN commissioned 82 new power transformers nationwide, adding about 8,500MVA of capacity. It also reconductored key lines including Delta-Effurun 132kV and Sokoto-Birnin Kebbi, and on April 23, 2026 completed the Ihovbor-Benin and Ihovbor-Ajaokuta 330kV lines, adding over 600MW to the Benin corridor to evacuate power from Azura and NIPP Ihovbor plants with a combined potential of up to 1.5GW.
According to TCN, the NERC’s own plant data which shows generation availability, is the bigger constraint. Adding that, the fleet’s Plant Availability Factor fell to 32.72% in Q1 2026, meaning 67.28% of installed capacity was unavailable before transmission was considered. Table 1 of the report lists several plants with near-zero availability: Alaoji_1 at 0.00%, Rivers_1 at 2.05%, and Sapele Steam_1 and Ibom Power_1 at 2.67% each. TCN noted that APGC’s Chief Executive separately admitted gas supply to thermal plants had fallen to under 43% of daily requirement, aligning with those low availability figures.
The regulator’s load factor data, TCN argued, further undercuts the “stranded power” narrative. With a grid load factor of 92.26% in Q1, only about 7.74% of declared available capacity — roughly 345MW — went undispatched on average. Five plants, including Geregu_1 and Olorunsogo_1, recorded 100% load factors, dispatching every megawatt they made available.
It also disputed figures on technical losses and unpaid capacity. The report’s Transmission Loss Factor of 7.96% equates to about 327MW on average, not the 1,200 to 1,300MW per day cited. The ₦2.61 billion loss linked to TLF underperformance, the statement said, was mostly a ₦2.35 billion GenCo capacity penalty, not wire losses. More significant, TCN said, was DisCos’ performance: ATC&C losses hit 37.44% against a 16.92% target, a ₦140.64 billion variance, plus a ₦24.95 billion remittance shortfall to NBET and the Market Operator in the quarter.
The company did not deny challenges in the sector, including vandalism and the January 23, 2026 collapse traced to a busbar separation at Sapele Transmission Station. But it said the January 27 partial collapse was preliminarily attributed by NERC to “lack of reactive power,” an ancillary service tied to generation and system operations.
TCN however, concluded that solutions should target the part of the value chain where NERC’s data shows the gap is widest at the generation gate while it continues grid reinforcement and automation with NISO, NERC, GenCos and DisCos.
This blame game was there during the administration of the former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu but when the new one came in under the leadership of Minister Joseph Tegbe, it has started again; meaning the end to power problem in Nigeria is yet insight.
